COVID-19 | Effects on Skoolies - No Politics please.

[JDSquared]

Originally Posted by Biscuitsjam

Thanks.

I'm curious where this is going to go from here. In Georgia, we sheltered in place far too late to contain the virus, half-assed it, then stopped before it had significant effects. Now, the state is doing a phased reopening. People are "just glad this is over with" and are happy they "no longer have to social distance." The vast majority of folks were wearing masks when going out in Columbus, GA before this. Now, they are a rare sight.

Most business owners are saying that they can reopen once. Their employees are still there because they've been getting unemployment or a paycheck subsidized by the government, and they generally have enough money put aside to restart operations. However, if they reopen too early and then have to close again, many will go bankrupt.

There's nothing "phased" about the reopening here in Savannah. And masks are few and far between. My kid's mom goes back to work at the mall on Wednesday. The mall is already open, but many stores remain closed until this week. Her company opened I think 7 stores in this district last week, mostly in SC. She says they did a months sales in three hours.

She's high risk and stressed out. Her mom lives with her, over 70, and stressed out. Her granddaughter is eight, lives with her and is stressed out.

I'm just pissed. But anybody on here who recognizes the name already knows that.

I'm glad you got out of Alaska before this all started! Glad you're with your baby and family.

[EastCoastCB]

Biscuits you just described my part of FL pretty damn well.

I'm really glad so far no one I know has been affected as far as I know. I certainly hope it stays that way. My parents and a couple of our friends are taking it super serious like my wife and I. But virtually the whole rest of our community are back to business as usual. Not many masks of folks anywhere these days. We got some groceries and supplies delivered and the girl was SUPER awesome. She had a mask! She had our groceries all arranged and bagged in a way that made sorting through it all quickly really easy. Was really refreshing to see.

I still think had we done a harder lockdown sooner we could have taken a BIG bite out of the spread and could have emerged safer and sooner. Seems to me like our country are basically throwing out any plans or procedures and just saying "effit" lets pretend its gone.

[Biscuitsjam]

A few observations:

1. The virus is far more contagious than the flu or most other diseases that people are familiar with. If people aren't social distancing, it'll spread like wildfire.

2. The virus kills a lot of people that it infects, perhaps around 1% and maybe less, but nowhere near the 3-4% that was floated around early on. The early estimates of catastrophic numbers of deaths won't happen, but it'll still be a lot, mostly elderly and those already ill. Many of those that do not die will have lasting damage to their health. Most probably the death rate will continue to fall as doctors improve treatment. Maybe it'll be 0.5% before long? 0.3%?

3. Whether we "flatten the curve" or do nothing, the virus will still infect at least 60% of the population. "Flatten the curve" does NOT mean that we are going to prevent most people from getting coronavirus, just that we will delay it and spread it out over a couple years. It may reduce the total number who get infected (80% to 60% is the estimate that I saw), but until we have a vaccine or herd immunity, this will just keep spreading and spreading. What's 0.3% of 60% of 300 million people? The White House keeps citing a model of U.S. deaths through August(https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/04/healt...ths/index.html). News Flash - this won't be over in August 2020 and maybe not August 2021....

4. In other words, unless you and your loved ones take extraordinary efforts or get lucky, you'll eventually get this. Fortunately, most cases are asymptomatic or mild.

5. The question is whether all those people are infected at the same time, or whether it is spread out over two years. If everyone is infected at the same time, then people do not receive hospital care for coronavirus or for other illnesses or injuries until this has passed. That means that a lot of people will die who would otherwise survive.

6. As a country, we failed to contain the virus because our shelter in place was far too late, not coordinated nationwide, not thorough enough, not supported by enough testing, and without adequate contact tracing teams to follow up.

7. As a country, we failed to flatten the curve because our shelter in place was far too early. We did the shelter in place orders before the virus had taken a strong hold in most communities. Done right, communities would have looked like New York City, with hospitals filled to capacity and ambulances racing around the clock, but not quite overwhelmed. 20-25% of the people in NYC have had coronavirus so far, so the next wave will not be as bad. Places like Georgia have few people with antibodies, but there are enough infected people that once social distancing stops, it'll spread like wildfire without any tools left to slow it down.

8. There are vaccines currently in early testing. However, a lot of vaccines are dangerous and can hurt or kill a portion of the people that take them. Other vaccines appear promising and then are duds. Because of these problems, we need prolonged testing before any vaccines are approved.

9. Once vaccines are approved, they need to be manufactured and distributed. It will take a very long time before most people in the world get the vaccine. Will it come to the U.S. first? Germany? China? Presumably health care workers and first responders get it first, but then who? How long would you need to wait?

10. The earliest I could possibly see vaccines being widely available to the general public is summer 2021 (one company is mass manufacturing vaccines before they've done any testing). However, it could be later before vaccines are widely available, Fall 2022? By then, it would be pretty anticlimactic because most of the world would already have herd immunity and COVID-19 would only be affecting people in a few scattered communities. "COVID Vaccine Now Available" would be page 5 news.

11. Immunity is a strange thing. Are people who recovered from coronavirus completely immune to getting it again forever? For a year? Maybe resistant for a period of time? Not immune at all? To any new strains that come along or only the one they got? What does this mean for vaccine development? Some experts have suggested that a vaccine is not really possible or that a new strain of COVID-19 will spread around the world every year or two.

12. The numbers of confirmed infections around the world is ridiculously low. Almost every country still has a shortage of testing kits. At one time, there were more coronavirus patients in Dallas ICUs than confirmed cases in the whole state.

13. The number of reported coronavirus deaths is also low. Most communities base it on confirmed cases only and usually only include people who died in hospitals. Just read this: https://www.economist.com/graphic-de...ross-countries.

So, what happens when Georgia, Florida, etc. reopens, then the hospitals get overwhelmed? Do we try to shut down and reopen again? If we try, then we will devastate the economy. Instead do we just tell the elderly and those most susceptible to "be careful" as we continue with the economy?

[Biscuitsjam]

Originally Posted by JDSquared

I'm glad you got out of Alaska before this all started! Glad you're with your baby and family.

Me too. If I had been just a little later leaving Iraq, I wouldn't have been allowed to leave country and would probably still be there. If I had been just a little later leaving Alaska, I would have had my orders cancelled with my family still in Georgia. If I had been just a little later driving, the Canadian border would have been closed.

I got extraordinarily lucky. I've spent a lot of time away from my family these past couple of years, so I've enjoyed spending all this time with them.

[Native]

Originally Posted by Biscuitsjam

Me too. If I had been just a little later leaving Iraq, I wouldn't have been allowed to leave country and would probably still be there. If I had been just a little later leaving Alaska, I would have had my orders cancelled with my family still in Georgia. If I had been just a little later driving, the Canadian border would have been closed.

I got extraordinarily lucky. I've spent a lot of time away from my family these past couple of years, so I've enjoyed spending all this time with them.

You are indeed a lucky fellow. Besides all the timing luck, you are able to be there for the first few weeks/months of your newborn's life/ That is precious!

[Booyah45828]

Originally Posted by Biscuitsjam

So, what happens when Georgia, Florida, etc. reopens, then the hospitals get overwhelmed? Do we try to shut down and reopen again? If we try, then we will devastate the economy. Instead do we just tell the elderly and those most susceptible to "be careful" as we continue with the economy?

IMO, the economy is already devastated. It will be over a year before we get it back. And nobody has talked about the massive amounts of inflation that we're going to have from all the money that has been given in the last few months.

Everyone should observe social distancing, and wearing a mask around others isn't difficult. Using hand sanitizers and clorox wipes is also not difficult. Those are things we should all do, for ourselves and fellow man.

Those with health issues that are at risk need to continue to isolate. But I'm not one of them, and I'd say isolation is for sure something that is easier said then done.

[BarnYardCamp]

In the end, I think the biggest casualty may be the Constitution. I didn't expect so many wanna-be tyrants to pop up and I certainly didn't think that my fellow Americans would so easily give up their freedoms. I'm thinking things will be a bit different if Covid-19 rears its ugly head in the fall. I say, absolutely issue guide lines and to the extent possible, protect the vulnerable. But I don't need nor want "Big Brother peering over my shoulder.
And as for all the magic money printed by the FED....eventually, this too will come back and bite us in the butt. When that happens, it will be everybody's fault except the politicians.

[EastCoastCB]

The biggest casualty is the 80k+ dead Americans.

Just theoretical here- Imagine if asking folks to wear masks could have prevented the second plane from hitting on 911. Folks that won't participate in efforts to abate this are a huge part of the problem.

[banman]

Originally Posted by BarnYardCamp

In the end, I think the biggest casualty may be the Constitution. I didn't expect so many wanna-be tyrants to pop up and I certainly didn't think that my fellow Americans would so easily give up their freedoms. I'm thinking things will be a bit different if Covid-19 rears its ugly head in the fall. I say, absolutely issue guide lines and to the extent possible, protect the vulnerable. But I don't need nor want "Big Brother peering over my shoulder.
And as for all the magic money printed by the FED....eventually, this too will come back and bite us in the butt. When that happens, it will be everybody's fault except the politicians.

Wanting absolute freedom without responsibility is called adolescence...

[BarnYardCamp]

Originally Posted by banman

Wanting absolute freedom without responsibility is called adolescence...

no, that would be called anarchy...

[BarnYardCamp]

Originally Posted by EastCoastCB

The biggest casualty is the 80k+ dead Americans.

Just theoretical here- Imagine if asking folks to wear masks could have prevented the second plane from hitting on 911. Folks that won't participate in efforts to abate this are a huge part of the problem.

I may sound uncaring..but of the 80K+ that died, we can never know how many of those were truly victims of Covid-19 or how many would have died from other ailments anyway.

I am not criticizing social distancing, frequent hand washings, disinfecting frequently touched surfaces or having my temperature checked when I arrive at work....though by the time I have a temperature it's too late, I would have already infected my work place.

I am criticizing political over reach. Once the political class gains an inch they're not likely to give it back. Kudos to the people who protested their lost of freedom. Except at the Michigan Capitol....(they should have left their guns at home!)

So, What's the value of freedom?

Those who would give up essential liberty, to purchase a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety. Benjamin Franklin (1706-1790)

[EastCoastCB]

actually doctors are saying the 80k is LOW. I know at least in my state there's a very real effort going on to bury the actual numbers. even if not ALL of the 80k are covid they would have been preventable in most cases but it complicates pre existing stuff. its going to well exceed 100k deaths and its not going to even take long. If that number alone isn't sobering then why did we care so much about a "measly 3-5k deaths" at 9/11? We've having a "911" about every 2 or 3 days.
I'm FREE to do pretty much whatever I want. The virus is what's infringing on us ALL but unfortunately not everyone's willing to step up and take any personal responsibility.

[JDSquared]

Originally Posted by BarnYardCamp

I may sound uncaring..but of the 80K+ that died, we can never know how many of those were truly victims of Covid-19 or how many would have died from other ailments anyway.



I am not criticizing social distancing, frequent hand washings, disinfecting frequently touched surfaces or having my temperature checked when I arrive at work....though by the time I have a temperature it's too late, I would have already infected my work place.



I am criticizing political over reach. Once the political class gains an inch they're not likely to give it back. Kudos to the people who protested their lost of freedom. Except at the Michigan Capitol....(they should have left their guns at home!)



So, What's the value of freedom?



Those who would give up essential liberty, to purchase a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety. Benjamin Franklin (1706-1790)

No shoes no shirt no service. No mask you're infringing on my rights?

[BarnYardCamp]

we could all still choose to go in a store to buy what we want/need...if the store is too crowded we can choose to come back later or to go to a competitor. Mandatory mask? No more inconvenient than washing your hands....and does not keep you from shopping where you want. I'm sure everyone has wondered why this business was closed but not that business. Are liquor stores essential?
AS far as No Shoes, No shirt etc, Let the business owner make that choice. And we will make our choice. If his business suffers, maybe he'll make a better choice or he'll go out of business...it's all about having choices as opposed to having the government choose for us.

[cadillackid]

this was my first weekend out.. I went to visit a few friends. and we social distance dined inside a bus. and I stayed in a hotel one night... the hotel is leaving sterilizing and then leaving rooms empty for at least 7 days right now as they can do that with occupancy low..



the really sad part was how few masks i saw out at truck stops where I fueled the bus up... the truckers are our essential that is pretty damn important yet very few wore masks.. i saw more passing-through average families wearing masks in the buildings. Ohio is phased like everyone else. ..only guidelines are that distancing or physical barriers need to be enforced at restaraunts and retail outlets and of course extra sanitizing.. I plan to continue eating my dinner in my DEV bus or on a chair outside the bus.. im not yet ready to go into a dining room.. esp here in ohio where they run the hell out of the Air-conditioner.. (which this particular virus LOVES cool dry spaces. and HATES warm spaces)..



restaraunt patios open this coming weekend and then "distanced indoor dining" opens next weekend..



the patios at the coffee shops I attend normally are generall well spread out anyway so I'll likely hit those on the warm days.. I never really hung out much inside coffee shops in spring / summer as the A/C is too cold for me..



since technically the Pseudo stay-at-home order isnt completely lifted, businesses that choose not to open in this innaugral period are still able to collect asisstance im told.. some places I know are going to do carry out and spread-out patio only. and not open their indoor dining room for a few weeks.. other places are going to just open wide to hell with it.. (ive heard from the grapvevine).. and what is crazy is im sure places will pack-out..



I am not a Lock-us-indoors kinda guy.. in fact had they done that (original plan was no outside exercise or non-grocery / medical trips at all.. ). that was lifted to allow fitness. .. otherwise I would have committed suicide no doubt about it..



HOWEVER


I doi want to see things done somewhat methodically.. and im afraid thats not happening.. obviously you cant wear a mask and eat.. im not sure I could wear a mask and fly on a plane or sit still.. my oxygen saturation level in my body started on a pretty decent downward trek as I sat still indoors for a couple hours wearing a mask.. that didnt happen while i was walking around as the air can change out in the mask to allow enough fresh oxygen.. the masks people are wearing are no rhyme or reason to the material as we have zero education on what to wear when active or when seated inactive.. everyone is either just wrapping cloth around their faces or ordering whatever amazon will send us. (thats me).. the mask-education factor has been absolutely TERRIBLE.....

[EastCoastCB]

I got lucky. I had a mostly full box of 3m N95's in my "bus supplies" stash.
I've only used one so far. I only ever need it on rare occasions and it sits roasting in our car's trunk all the time.

[EastCoastCB]

86,571 is the count as of last night.

They're already booking cruises again. Universal City Walk is open. Gatorland and Disney are gearing up to re-open. They're doubling restaurant capacity soon. No masks.
FL is inviting tourists to bring infection to my community.

[TheHubbardBus]

Originally Posted by EastCoastCB

They're already booking cruises again.

I've been wishing all the dimwits dragging down the gene pool would get on a boat & leave the nation for decades now! COVID19 is like a divining rod for dummies.

[Danjo]

How come Isaac doesn’t have a mask? And while you are asking, order me up a margarita

[TheHubbardBus]

Originally Posted by Danjo

How come Isaac doesn’t have a mask? And while you are asking, order me up a margarita

Not my meme, but I'm guessing it has something to do with minorities being disproportionately impacted. Either that or Isaac's smile was too intense for simple paper filtration elements to contain.

And you can get your own drink. The guy's a bartender. That's the respiratory-virus equivalent of a prostitute

If you'd like something stronger, looks like the Captain might be holding.