COVID-19 | Effects on Skoolies - No Politics please.

[EastCoastCB]

Originally Posted by Biscuitsjam

There are two reasons to do a shelter in place:

CONTAINMENT:
If you want to contain the virus, you need a 2-3 month, strictly-enforced shelter order, followed by widespread testing, restricted entry from outside, and aggressive contact tracing to identify hotspots early. If successful, you can gradually open back up and go back to life as normal. Nobody in the U.S. even attempted containment.

FLATTEN THE CURVE

The goal here is not to contain the virus. The virus will keep coming back until 60-80% of the population is infected. Once that happens, transmission will slow dramatically. Then, a vaccine has the potential to eradicate Covid-19 if widely distributed.

The goal is to slow the virus transmission so this happens over 2 years and not over 6 months. Success means that your hospitals are never overwhelmed. Success does NOT mean that you prevent people from getting COVID 19. Ideally, as you shelter, hospitals are near capacity but never overwhelmed. Then, once cases go to near zero, open back up again and try to slow the spread as much as possible with widespread testing, bans on large gatherings, and aggressive contact tracing. Chances are, though, you'll need to shut down a second time and maybe a third...

Most shelter in place orders accomplished little - they were too late and not extreme enough to contain the virus. However, they were also too early to really be effective in flattening the curve. Here's the problem - if few people had COVID, that means your population is still defenseless... Without more testing or contact tracing or social distancing, it'll spread as fast now as if we did nothing.

Our government knows this, but all publicized projections are just about what happens before August.... If the deaths are delayed until September, they don't count? Or will we shut down the country again in August and then in January and in May and....

My opinion? As far as South Dakota goes, if their hospitals aren't overwhelmed, then they were right to wait. New York was right to do their shelter as they did. Everybody else screwed it up.

The reports are that your governor has been fudging the #'s in a similar manner to FL.
https://reason.com/2020/05/18/dont-b...ovid-19-cases/
https://news.yahoo.com/georgias-coro...183733274.html

[Biscuitsjam]

Originally Posted by EastCoastCB

The reports are that your governor has been fudging the #'s in a similar manner to FL.
https://reason.com/2020/05/18/dont-b...ovid-19-cases/
https://news.yahoo.com/georgias-coro...183733274.html

Not surprised...

I feel like it's futile to make predictions, especially if we keep lying to ourselves about the present and the past.

[TJones]

Originally Posted by JackE

Really not trying to cause conflict here, but here it goes.....

I have read tons here about masking up, forced closures, numbers rising, defiance to political directives, and so on, and so on, and so on.......

Can someone explain to me how South Dakota Governor has issued ZERO directives on closing anything, no travel bans, no mask wearing directives. They have the lowest percentage of Covid related deaths, by almost double the next lowest state. She came out in the beginning and said she wasn't going to try to force her citizens to do anything because she knew they would do what was best on their own. And they have!

Anyone care to enlighten me?

I live in Rapid City, South Dakota. There are not that many people here and the population density is low. Our governor closed schools a full week before New York City. Our local municipalities closed dine in restaurants, gyms and any other business that would have people in close contact. Those restrictions were lifted about a week ago. Other business went to curbside pickup or limited access to their store.

We would have very few cases had it not been for the large outbreak of 3000+ cases related to the Smith Field meat packing plant. Many but not all people here are wearing masks to retail stores.

The governors plan was not to stop the spread of the virus but to slow it down as it was to late to completely stop its spread. They are predicting our cases to peak in June. I think we are going to see a surge in cases as our area is filling up with tourists from out of state.

Ted

[EastCoastCB]

Originally Posted by TJones

I live in Rapid City, South Dakota. There are not that many people here and the population density is low. Our governor closed schools a full week before New York City. Our local municipalities closed dine in restaurants, gyms and any other business that would have people in close contact. Those restrictions were lifted about a week ago. Other business went to curbside pickup or limited access to their store.

We would have very few cases had it not been for the large outbreak of 3000+ cases related to the Smith Field meat packing plant. Many but not all people here are wearing masks to retail stores.

The governors plan was not to stop the spread of the virus but to slow it down as it was to late to completely stop its spread. They are predicting our cases to peak in June. I think we are going to see a surge in cases as our area is filling up with tourists from out of state.

Ted

Sounds like S Dakota folks are wearing masks a lot more than some of the folks down here in the southeast.

There are reports all over the country of folks being violent when asked to wear one. Here's one-
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news...e-say-n1210951

[Danjo]

Joshua Tree NP is open again! Yay!

[EastCoastCB]

Our local mellow mushroom are now a concert venue?! They're booking shows starting this week. Mellow mushroom are now the place in town to go for live country music. Such a weird universe!
Its odd as they never had any live music pre-covid.

[EastCoastCB]

CDC found a case of a church with an outbreak. Interesting reading. 92 attendees, 35 got covid, 3 died.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6920e2.htm

[Danjo]

Originally Posted by EastCoastCB

Our local mellow mushroom are now a concert venue?! They're booking shows starting this week. Mellow mushroom are now the place in town to go for live country music. Such a weird universe!
Its odd as they never had any live music pre-covid.

I sure miss live music, though I wouldn’t go right now even if there were venues around me to go to.

[EastCoastCB]

Originally Posted by Danjo

I sure miss live music, though I wouldn’t go right now even if there were venues around me to go to.

I'm just baffled as to why Mellow would choose be a country music venue. Right now especially.

[JackE]

Originally Posted by EastCoastCB

I'm just baffled as to why Mellow would choose be a country music venue. Right now especially.

Like you said, Party Cruise Ship! They want their turn infecting as many as possible!

[EastCoastCB]

Originally Posted by JackE

Like you said, Party Cruise Ship! They want their turn infecting as many as possible!

I'm picturing a sickly conga line of rednecks coughing on each other lol.

[Native]

Originally Posted by Danjo

Joshua Tree NP is open again! Yay!

That is good news for those looking for another place to stay!


I expect more of the National and State parks will start to open. Some have opened with no camping and no facilities. I suppose that is to provide a place to escape to, but not congregate.

[Native]

We want to keep moving our stuff, but are still holed up at home.

So folks, who here is travelling right now?

[Drew Bru]

Originally Posted by Native

So folks, who here is travelling right now?

We're traveling right now. Haven't had many problems finding spots in the pandemic, but we've been in Nevada for the past few months. Only problems we had were at Lake Mead, which they closed due to overuse and it getting trashed. We're staying pretty far off the beaten path though. Hopefully things are starting to loosen up, although Oregon has closed dispersed camping in State Forests, apparently because people are leaving enormous amounts of trash everywhere.

[EastCoastCB]

A Celtic supporter in Glasgow Scotland lost his life to Covid-19 recently. His funeral happened to be on title day and his procession went by Celtic Park.
RIP Jim Russell

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/s...27#source=push

[JackE]

Originally Posted by Native

We want to keep moving our stuff, but are still holed up at home.

So folks, who here is travelling right now?

Not really traveling because we are both still working, but we are headed out into the Nevada desert this weekend for some camping fun.

Drew, are you still in the area enjoying our mountains?

[Biscuitsjam]

Interesting article on the CDC's fatality estimates.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/05/22/h...ths/index.html

Quick summary: they estimate that 35% of cases are asymptomatic. Of patients with symptoms, they estimate between 0.2% and 1% will die. These contrasts with previous estimates of 3.4%.

My thoughts:
If 60% of the population get COVID over the next two years, 65% show symptoms, and 1% of those die, that's 1.3 million. If 0.2% die, that's 260,000. Assuming these numbers are accurate (and not politically adjusted), the only way to affect this trajectory is to develop a vaccine sooner or come up with treatments that improve survival rates.

The media needs to quit focusing on the "before August" numbers. This is a marathon, not a Sprint.

[EastCoastCB]

Originally Posted by Biscuitsjam

Interesting article on the CDC's fatality estimates.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/05/22/h...ths/index.html

Quick summary: they estimate that 35% of cases are asymptomatic. Of patients with symptoms, they estimate between 0.2% and 1% will die. These contrasts with previous estimates of 3.4%.

My thoughts:
If 60% of the population get COVID over the next two years, 65% show symptoms, and 1% of those die, that's 1.3 million. If 0.2% die, that's 260,000. Assuming these numbers are accurate (and not politically adjusted), the only way to affect this trajectory is to develop a vaccine sooner or come up with treatments that improve survival rates.

The media needs to quit focusing on the "before August" numbers. This is a marathon, not a Sprint.

Those numbers are very sobering.

I got a call from my mom this morning. She's been taking her dog to several vets. Its been worrying me. Also she's been shopping at Sam's again.
SHe got up this morning with a cough and runny nose. She has a respiratory based immuno-deficiency so we're hoping its just a flare up of that from stress.
We're all going to hole up extra tight for the next few weeks. I think my folks are going to start trying to get their social security benefits going. The food stamp money we got will feed us for the next few months and if we get the unemployment money we've been waiting on we can keep up with the bills.
Thanks to Sandi, Roxy is starting to do some work from home so that will help out a LOT.

[Native]

I do hope your mother is NOT COVID-19 positive.


Hang in there Charlie!!!

[Biscuitsjam]

Same here. Hope she's fine.