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Old 03-23-2020, 09:33 PM   #101
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Looks like travel is going to be more difficult as more states have stay-at-home orders in place:



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Old 03-24-2020, 09:25 AM   #102
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Georgia is open for business!

With almost no action from the governor or state legislature, some school districts, churches, and businesses have voluntarily closed. Others have not, and people are still shopping, going to work, etc.
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Old 03-24-2020, 10:12 AM   #103
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No lack of campers at Lake Pleasant AZ. We drove in yesterday and this is our wake up greeting.
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Old 03-24-2020, 10:16 AM   #104
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Every group function is canceled.

Slt down dining is banned.

Groceries are still slim pickings.

I am loosing my mind. Too much time spent without enough face to face human contact gets to me.

Next up is my first telemedicine appointment.
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Old 03-24-2020, 10:19 AM   #105
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Originally Posted by Biscuitsjam View Post
Georgia is open for business!

With almost no action from the governor or state legislature, some school districts, churches, and businesses have voluntarily closed. Others have not, and people are still shopping, going to work, etc.
Similar here.
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Old 03-24-2020, 10:27 AM   #106
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My predictions, based on copious reading:

-In about a week, New York and possibly Seattle will have a crisis as their hospitals are overwhelmed. This will coincide with a shortage of respirators, N95 masks, etc. which will get rushed to those cities from elsewhere after much wailing that the communities sending them are also short. (Medical shortages will eventually get resolved, but doctors/nurses will reuse masks and doctors/nurses in other hospital wards may do without for a while)

-About a week after that, several other cities will be overwhelmed and a few more sounding the alarm. Probably about this time, the pressure will rise on elected officials to "do something." I'm not sure exactly what their response will be, but the most likely is a total lockdown of wide areas of the country.

-Communities that are in lockdown will see the number of confirmed cases continue to skyrocket for 2-3 weeks until it peaks and new infections starts to decline. Hospitalizations/deaths will peak about two weeks after the number of cases peak. If the lockdown is successful, the number of cases will fall to about 0 in two months. After the lockdown is lifted, new cases will appear from folks entering/leaving the area.

-Communities that aren't in lockdown will continue to see the number of cases rise until politicians are forced to "do something." The number of infections will double about every 6 days. True number of infections is likely 10-100x the number of confirmed cases, as a combination of a lack of testing, about 50% asymptomatic (but infectious) cases, and a two-week incubation period. Likely, these communities will go into lockdown no later than their hospitals being overwhelmed.

Scenario 1: It would take a coordinated 2-month lockdown to get this under control. After that, things could partially reopen if we had widespread testing to identify hotspots as they appear and then trace contacts. A few communities may need to be locked down a second time, but people that are now immune from a previous infection can run many essential services. If we are successful, we may have a relatively small portion of the society infected before a vaccine becomes available. Overall, we could suffer tens of thousands or maybe hundreds of thousands of deaths, which is a lot of people but still a small percentage of society. For this to work, we need a LOT of testing ability and lots of powers from health authorities to compel testing, enforce quarantines, etc.

Scenario 2: If we can't get this under control (as it seems China and South Korea have), then it will eventually infect at least 60% of the population. With medical interventions, including treatments currently being developed/tested, the fatality rate will probably be under 1%, maybe as low as 0.5%. This would result in as many as a million deaths, assuming that we "flatten the curve" enough to keep hospitals from being overwhelmed.

Scenario 3: If we fail to flatten the curve, then hospitals will get completely overwhelmed and critically ill people will get no treatment at all. Also, people with other illnesses or injuries will get no treatment either. The death toll in this scenario is likely to be over 10 million. (Assuming 80% infection rate and 3.5% fatality rate, and not counting folks dieing of other diseases/illnesses).

-This will likely be resolved 18-30 months after it started, or between August 2021 and August 2022. For it to end, the entire world needs about 80% immunity, either from having been previous infected or from the vaccine. Once 80% of the population is immune, the virus will die off. There are a lot of companies working on vaccines by different methods. After development, they need to be tested, because some experimental vaccines do not provide immunity, have devastating side effects, or even make people more vulnerable to infection. After approval, millions or billions of doses need to be manufactured and distributed. So, assuming extraordinary efforts, a vaccine could be developed and tested in 12-24 months, with another 6 months to manufacture and distribute it.

-At the end of this, we will face a recession at the least.
However, massive government stimulus may prevent a depression (at the cost of debt that will affect the next generation). There is no "good" government choice, but the worst choice is waffling and half-measures. Either do or don't do. You can't half-do, change your mind, and then expect good results. Waffling will get you all the negatives or both choices with none of the positives of either.

-We will also take enormous leaps in our healthcare systems. New drug development, vaccine development, genomic epidemiology, etc. will be much enhanced.

-Ecommerce, teleworking, and other similar technologies will make enormous strides, probably in surprising ways. It will be much more possible to get a job that enables you to work from home (or in a skoolie touring the country).

-This will change society in unforeseeable ways. The pandemic of 2020 will be a transformative event, much like September 11th, the introduction of the consumer internet in 1996, etc.
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Old 03-24-2020, 10:56 AM   #107
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My predictions, based on copious reading:
I'm not going to go into depth on this, but I will make a point: People should get ready to ride this out, and potentially for life as we know it to change.

The economic impact is my primary concern. The only reason anything is still working is that people still see a light at the end of the tunnel. If we get to month 3 or so and there's no end in sight, our lives are suddenly no longer on hold, they've been cancelled. That changeover will be pretty dramatic.

I'm no longer confident I'll have a job at the end of all of this, and I'm planning accordingly. I'm not in the middle of a city, but I sure as heck wish I were a little more rural right now. I just hope for more time.
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Old 03-24-2020, 11:20 AM   #108
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I'm in the military, so I'll get a paycheck the entire time. I doubt I'll have much role in any response either, since I'll be in a tiny training unit that wouldn't be much use unless amalgamated with a lot of other small units. I was planning to get out in a couple years, but maybe that's not such a good idea now...

Military bases will likely house lots of folks soon - we have barracks for thousands of Soldiers that are sitting empty at Fort Benning after the cuts during the Obama administration. There is also a massive empty hospital that's been sitting unused after the new one was completed. One of our state representatives was on the radio yesterday advocating for this to be a quarantine/isolation zone if Atlanta has a lot of patients. We'll see.

This is the 21st century Sitzkreig.
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Old 03-24-2020, 12:12 PM   #109
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@Biscuitsjam, thanks for sharing your analysis. I agree, but I think we will probably have to get this thing under control twice, and it will be easier the first time than the second.

The first time we will have the transition from spring to summer on our side, but I think it will hit us again as summer turns into fall and so on. And I think that second time will be worse, possibly much worse.

So, I intend to do the best I can to prepare for a real **** storm, and then maintain those preparations even if it looks for a while in mid to late summer like things are getting a lot better.
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Old 03-24-2020, 12:36 PM   #110
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...demic-who-says
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Old 03-24-2020, 01:03 PM   #111
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Well written article. Lays out the current statistics without much guessing or hype.
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Old 03-24-2020, 01:10 PM   #112
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Georgia is open for business!

With almost no action from the governor or state legislature, some school districts, churches, and businesses have voluntarily closed. Others have not, and people are still shopping, going to work, etc.
Not for long. Look at the graphic showing the outbreaks in the US in the article above. Georgia has a lot ofcases and they are all currently unchecked. 803 cases in Georgia, 826 cases in Texas. Thus, the density of cases is way higher than Texas where there are a few counties under stay-at-home orders and many more cities with the order in counties that have not issued the order.
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Old 03-24-2020, 01:46 PM   #113
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Just caught this. Last night Gov. Inslee issued a "stay home" order. Essential functions are allowed but some are not.

"The order is effective immediately on gatherings, both public and private, social, spiritual, and recreational. Even funerals and weddings are prohibited"
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Old 03-24-2020, 01:48 PM   #114
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FL is going to be BAD.
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Old 03-24-2020, 02:11 PM   #115
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Like everyone I am following this outbreak. Doing my part as well but look at what else can happen that nobody seems to mention.
Maybe it will never happen simultaneously with Covid, but it can and I expect it will.


This is the failure of the electrical grid if the people running those power plants fall ill. In nuclear facilities up here, workers cannot avoid using monitors for radiation intake while at work. These are like phone booths that you must put your nose and chin on a sensor dead ahead of you. Your hands and arms go into a tube affair, no gloves, impossible machines to disinfect.
So, how might that affect a few thousand workers and leave those reactors humming without supervision and maintenance. The control room workers are so highly trained that they are indispensable and not enough trained for such an event.
Just a thought which has entered my mind and thought I would share.
If this turns into a nuclear meltdown at this time,our worries are over.


Be happy


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Old 03-24-2020, 02:30 PM   #116
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This is the failure of the electrical grid if the people running those power plants fall ill.
I think the risk of grid failure is primarily centered around large metropolitan areas. As this spreads you might see localized outages with nobody to fix them (we had brownouts all last night due to heavy snow), but overall grid failure is probably going to be an urban/suburban thing (if it came to pass) while prolonged localized outages would be more a rural thing.
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Old 03-24-2020, 02:42 PM   #117
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I think the risk of grid failure is primarily centered around large metropolitan areas. As this spreads you might see localized outages with nobody to fix them (we had brownouts all last night due to heavy snow), but overall grid failure is probably going to be an urban/suburban thing (if it came to pass) while prolonged localized outages would be more a rural thing.

Thanks for your response. We see different things. I see mechanical and electrical failures in the power plants themselves. If one plant goes down on its own there can be a chain reaction when the load drops and has to be instantly compensated by other plants which overloads all equipment everywhere.
And the the danger of nuclear fallout looms huge. Nowhere will be safe with the number of nuclear stations susceptible around the globe.


Food for thought, keep your heads up!


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Old 03-24-2020, 02:54 PM   #118
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I just placed an order for my solar panels (3kw). Grid failure is not something I anticipate coming easily- but I am mitigating the possibility of outages.
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Old 03-24-2020, 03:01 PM   #119
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And in my case the dual-fuel generator I was planning to buy in a few months recently moved to the top of my shopping list. I am not ready for solar panels, but a generator will keep me working if the power goes out.

I already know from experience that the road I live on has a pretty low priority for restoring power in the case of a failure. After a windstorm rural areas always get their power back last. Normally that only makes a few hours difference, but this next time will be different. It could be a lot different.
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Old 03-24-2020, 04:20 PM   #120
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Looks like travel is going to be more difficult as more states have stay-at-home orders in place:



our Ohio shelter order isdamn near unenforceable.. you are allowed to go out for groceries... meds.. supplies..take-out is open.. walk paths bike paths are opem (playgrounds closed).. gas stations open.. and this theme.. governor dewine started a lot of it.. is the same across most states iussuing orders.. a couple cities or burbs if you will within columbus have called curfews midnight to 7am.. good riddence as both places that have done it are ghetto-hoods where the only thing going on after midnight anyway were drug-deals and murders.. you can still go in and out of the state.. all roads are open.. but things like gyms,boutiques and the like are all ordered closed.. stores are supposed to enforce social-distancing.. but grocery stores and walmart sure arent.. they are zoos like they always are... and hte hoarders continue to hoard and therest of us who bought reasonably are seeing our supplies of cleaners and paper goods dwindle..
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