Hmmm... Can't say for sure. The only experience I have of a failing transmission is in an automatic, it's sudden, catastrophic, and comes without warning. However, in my rally car, which is a manual, the synchros are starting to go. It doesn't make a noise, but it's hard to get it into second, from either direction, 1 to 2, 3 to 2, etc. Judging by the video, it looks like you're having a little struggle getting it into a gear. Has that been typical?
Also, another thought, on my aging Xterra, the front sway bar usually loosens up every year or so. I know it's time to tighten the bolts when I hear it start to jutter over bumps and the like. I always use this time as a reminder to grease the front end as well (very scientific). I would get under the front end with a crowbar and move things about in the steering areas (front end off the ground, jack-stand supported) and if it's like a ball joint or something similar. I'm assuming it's not a 4x4?